Predicting the position of equilibrium without using pKa values

By the end of this guide, you’ll confidently predict which side of an acid-base reaction is favored at equilibrium—without relying on pKa values. You’ll learn to identify acids, bases, and their conjugates, and assess base stability using charge, resonance, and other key factors.
. Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Reading Time: 3 minutes

Big picture:

 

Every acid-base reaction is a competition for a proton.

 

 

 

 

HA + B ⇌ A+ HB

 

The direction of equilibrium depends on which side has the more stable conjugate base, either A or B.

 

Remember when we ranked acids by evaluating the stability of their conjugate bases using Charge, Atom, Resonance, Induction, and Orbitals?

 

We’ll be applying those same principles here.

 

Not familiar with these concepts yet? We recommend checking out our guide to ranking acids by strength before diving in.

 

Our goal is simple: figure out which base is more stable, so we can predict which direction the reaction will favor—with confidence.

 

 

Step 1: Identify the base on either side of the equilibrium

 

💡Quick Tip:

 

Bases in Brønsted-Lowry acid-base reactions typically carry a negative charge, which helps you quickly spot them.

 

Look at the equation and identify the bases on both sides:

 

 

Diagram labeling B⁻ as the base (proton acceptor) and A⁻ as the conjugate base (formed after HA donates a proton) in an acid-base reaction

 

 

  • The base (usually B) is the species that accepts the proton.
  • The conjugate base (usually A) is what remains after the acid donates a proton.

 

 

Step 2: Compare the stability of these bases

 

Now ask: Which base is more stable?

 

To evaluate stability, we’ll consider all four factors in this order  (Atom, Resonance, Induction, Orbitals)

 

 

1️⃣ Atom:

 

Negative charges are more stable on more electronegative atoms (across a period)

 

Diagram showing that negative charges are more stable on more electronegative atoms across a period, increasing from carbon to fluorine

 

 

and larger atoms (down a group).

 

 

Diagram showing that negative charges are more stable on larger atoms as you move down a group in the periodic table (e.g., F⁻ < Cl⁻ < Br⁻ < I⁻)

 

 

2️⃣ Resonance:

 

Can the negative charge be delocalized through resonance? If so, resonance dramatically increases stability.

 

Diagram showing how the negative charge on acetate is delocalized through resonance, making it more stable than methoxide, which has a localized charge

 

 

3️⃣ Induction:

 

Nearby electronegative atoms or electron-withdrawing groups help stabilize the negative charge through inductive effects.

 

Diagram showing how electron-withdrawing fluorine atoms stabilize negative charge through inductive effects, with increasing stabilization as the substituent gets closer to the negatively charged site

 

 

4️⃣ Orbitals:

 

A negative charge is more stable in orbitals with higher s-character, so sp > sp² > sp³.

 

Diagram showing how negative charge stability increases with orbital s-character, following the trend sp³ < sp² < sp, making CHC⁻ the most stable

 

Take your time comparing both bases through this lens. The one that checks off more boxes is generally the more stable conjugate base, and that’s the side equilibrium will favor.

 

 

Step 3: Equilibrium will favor the more stable base

 

Equilibrium favors the side with the more stable base.

 

  • If the more stable base is on the product side (A) → equilibrium favors the products.
  • If the more stable base is on the reactant side (B) → equilibrium favors the reactants.

 

And that’s it! By comparing base stability, you can predict the direction the reaction favors, even without relying on pKa values.

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